Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $237 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$236.54
-$0.04
99.8¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.8¢ | $163.67 | $163.63 | -$0.04 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $31.31 | $31.33 | +$0.02 | 50% 4547-4458 (9005) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $21.57 | $21.58 | +$0.01 | 27% 499-1343 (1842) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.96 | -$0 | 99% 137-1 (138) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.07 | $0.04 | -$0.03 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
LucerysInvested
$163.67
Value
$163.63
PnL
-$0.04
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
balthazar<$100Invested
$31.31
Value
$31.33
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
4547-4458 (9005)
Invested
$21.57
Value
$21.58
PnL
+$0.01
Record
27%
499-1343 (1842)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.96
PnL
-$0
Record
99%
137-1 (138)
Invested
$0.07
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$0.03
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.