Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on November 10?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $577 held

Yes1¢No99¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$576.57

Combined PnL

$17.66

Smart Money Entry

95.4¢ → 98.6¢

+3% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$576.57

Total Shares584

Combined PnL+$17.66

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 95.5¢	$168.19	$172.99	+$4.8	21% 132-485 (617)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$96.1	$96.2	+$0.1	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 86.8¢	$65.1	$73.95	+$8.85	10% 25-236 (261)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$48.58	$48.65	+$0.07	11% 35-270 (305)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93.6¢	$45.51	$41.97	+$1.53	51% 197-186 (383)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$29.23	$29.58	+$0.35	4% 14-366 (380)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$29.51	$29.58	+$0.07	32% 811-1697 (2508)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$27.3	$27.34	+$0.04	28% 153-400 (553)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$22.32	$22.41	+$0.09	30% 174-414 (588)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 89.5¢	$15.93	$17.55	+$1.62	4% 17-463 (480)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$14.45	$14.59	+$0.14	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$1.75	$1.76	+$0	36% 462-806 (1268)

241532532432

Invested

$168.19

Value

$172.99

PnL

+$4.8

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$96.1

Value

$96.2

PnL

+$0.1

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$65.1

Value

$73.95

PnL

+$8.85

Record

10%

25-236 (261)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$48.58

Value

$48.65

PnL

+$0.07

Record

11%

35-270 (305)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$45.51

Value

$41.97

PnL

+$1.53

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.23

Value

$29.58

PnL

+$0.35

Record

14-366 (380)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.51

Value

$29.58

PnL

+$0.07

Record

32%

811-1697 (2508)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$27.3

Value

$27.34

PnL

+$0.04

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$22.32

Value

$22.41

PnL

+$0.09

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$15.93

Value

$17.55

PnL

+$1.62

Record

17-463 (480)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$14.45

Value

$14.59

PnL

+$0.14

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.76

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.