Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on November 10?

15 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 72¢ · $766 held · ends Nov 10

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$765.54

Combined PnL

$57.03

Smart Money Entry

64.9¢ → 72¢

+11% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 15 top traders (100%)14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$765.4

Total Shares1,007

Combined PnL+$57.03

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 64.3¢	$416.44	$454.8	+$38.36	21% 132-485 (617)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 69.4¢	$67.76	$68.3	+$0.54	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 67.5¢	$53.59	$55.54	+$1.95	4% 14-366 (380)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 57.4¢	$43.05	$52.5	+$9.45	5% 18-315 (333)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 63.6¢	$22.04	$24.25	+$2.21	89% 409-53 (462)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 72¢	$21.6	$21	-$0.6	11% 35-270 (305)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 67.1¢	$14.55	$15.17	+$0.62	36% 462-806 (1268)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 68¢	$13.84	$14.25	+$0.41	28% 153-400 (553)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 64¢	$12.7	$13.89	+$1.19	2% 12-662 (674)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 68.1¢	$12.19	$12.53	+$0.33	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 60.5¢	$10.77	$12.46	+$1.69	4% 17-463 (480)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 68.5¢	$11.3	$11.54	+$0.25	30% 174-414 (588)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 68¢	$3.49	$3.59	+$0.1	34% 150-294 (444)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 61¢	$3.12	$3.58	+$0.46	31% 163-361 (524)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 67.7¢	$1.94	$2.01	+$0.07	35% 138-259 (397)

241532532432

Invested

$416.44

Value

$454.8

PnL

+$38.36

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$67.76

Value

$68.3

PnL

+$0.54

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$53.59

Value

$55.54

PnL

+$1.95

Record

14-366 (380)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$43.05

Value

$52.5

PnL

+$9.45

Record

18-315 (333)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$22.04

Value

$24.25

PnL

+$2.21

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$21.6

Value

$21

PnL

-$0.6

Record

11%

35-270 (305)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$14.55

Value

$15.17

PnL

+$0.62

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$13.84

Value

$14.25

PnL

+$0.41

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$12.7

Value

$13.89

PnL

+$1.19

Record

12-662 (674)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$12.19

Value

$12.53

PnL

+$0.33

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$10.77

Value

$12.46

PnL

+$1.69

Record

17-463 (480)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$11.3

Value

$11.54

PnL

+$0.25

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.49

Value

$3.59

PnL

+$0.1

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.12

Value

$3.58

PnL

+$0.46

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$1.94

Value

$2.01

PnL

+$0.07

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 15 top traders (100%)14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.