Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 14 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on November 10?

14 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 40¢ · $604 held · ends Nov 10

Yes60¢No40¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$603.8

Combined PnL

-$17.82

Smart Money Entry

45¢ → 40¢

-11% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$94.87

Total Shares148

Combined PnL+$5.07

No14 traders

Total Value$149.59

Total Shares383

Combined PnL-$22.89

Yes — 13%No — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Yesavg 54.9¢	$354.52	$359.34	+$4.82	21% 132-485 (617)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54.9¢	$248.01	$271.2	+$23.19
└ No leg	Noavg 47.1¢	$106.51	$88.14	-$18.37
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Yesavg 56.2¢	$61.07	$65.22	+$4.15	2% 12-662 (674)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 41.3¢	$36.78	$34.71	-$2.07	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 56.5¢	$28.74	$29.65	+$0.92	89% 409-53 (462)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$41.25	$29.25	-$12	11% 35-270 (305)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Noavg 40.2¢	$19.84	$19.24	-$0.6	10% 25-236 (261)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 47.9¢	$14.37	$11.7	-$2.67	5% 18-315 (333)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$13.2	$11.7	-$1.5	4% 15-322 (337)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 41.4¢	$11.55	$10.88	-$0.67	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 40.2¢	$8.68	$8.43	-$0.25	35% 138-259 (397)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 50.8¢	$9.04	$6.94	-$2.1	4% 17-463 (480)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$6.6	$6.28	-$0.32	31% 163-361 (524)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 40.9¢	$4.88	$4.66	-$0.22	34% 150-294 (444)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$2.25	$1.99	-$0.26	36% 462-806 (1268)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$2.05	$1.95	-$0.1	28% 153-400 (553)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$1.07	$1.07	-$0	30% 174-414 (588)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$0.91	$0.79	-$0.13	51% 197-186 (383)

241532532432ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$354.52

Value

$359.34

PnL

+$4.82

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Both legs:

Yes$248.0154.9¢+$23.19

No$106.5147.1¢-$18.37

HellYeahTrader<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.07

Value

$65.22

PnL

+$4.15

Record

12-662 (674)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$36.78

Value

$34.71

PnL

-$2.07

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.74

Value

$29.65

PnL

+$0.92

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$41.25

Value

$29.25

PnL

-$12

Record

11%

35-270 (305)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Invested

$19.84

Value

$19.24

PnL

-$0.6

Record

10%

25-236 (261)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$14.37

Value

$11.7

PnL

-$2.67

Record

18-315 (333)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$13.2

Value

$11.7

PnL

-$1.5

Record

15-322 (337)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$11.55

Value

$10.88

PnL

-$0.67

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$8.68

Value

$8.43

PnL

-$0.25

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$9.04

Value

$6.94

PnL

-$2.1

Record

17-463 (480)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.28

PnL

-$0.32

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$4.88

Value

$4.66

PnL

-$0.22

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$2.25

Value

$1.99

PnL

-$0.26

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$2.05

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$0.1

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$1.07

Value

$1.07

PnL

-$0

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.79

PnL

-$0.13

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 40%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.