Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on November 10?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 82¢ · $412 held · ends Nov 10

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$412.45

Combined PnL

-$18.98

Smart Money Entry

91.5¢ → 82¢

-10% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$303.5

Total Shares354

Combined PnL-$18.98

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 38%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 89¢	$104.59	$108.95	+$4.36	21% 132-485 (617)
└ No leg	Noavg 89¢	$75.65	$75.48	-$0.17
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 9.7¢	$28.94	$33.47	+$4.53
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98¢	$73.43	$63.93	-$9.5	4% 14-366 (380)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 85.9¢	$51.54	$51.18	-$0.36	10% 25-236 (261)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 91¢	$52.72	$49.41	-$3.31	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 87.9¢	$69.72	$43.26	+$1.66	51% 197-186 (383)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 90.9¢	$27.28	$25.59	-$1.69	11% 35-270 (305)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 88¢	$22.54	$21.85	-$0.7	89% 409-53 (462)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 93.9¢	$16.8	$15.26	-$1.54	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$17.11	$15.18	-$1.93	4% 17-463 (480)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 93.4¢	$13.21	$12.06	-$1.15	30% 174-414 (588)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 92.1¢	$4.72	$4.38	-$0.35	31% 163-361 (524)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 92.1¢	$1.51	$1.4	-$0.11	28% 153-400 (553)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$104.59

Value

$108.95

PnL

+$4.36

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Both legs:

No$75.6589¢-$0.17

Yes$28.949.7¢+$4.53

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$73.43

Value

$63.93

PnL

-$9.5

Record

14-366 (380)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$51.54

Value

$51.18

PnL

-$0.36

Record

10%

25-236 (261)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$52.72

Value

$49.41

PnL

-$3.31

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$69.72

Value

$43.26

PnL

+$1.66

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$27.28

Value

$25.59

PnL

-$1.69

Record

11%

35-270 (305)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$22.54

Value

$21.85

PnL

-$0.7

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$16.8

Value

$15.26

PnL

-$1.54

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$17.11

Value

$15.18

PnL

-$1.93

Record

17-463 (480)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$13.21

Value

$12.06

PnL

-$1.15

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.72

Value

$4.38

PnL

-$0.35

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$1.51

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$0.11

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 38%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.8%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.