Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on November 10?
11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $388 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 100%
$387.64
-$6.4
99¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 11 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 51%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $104.33 | $102.27 | -$2.05 | 32% 811-1697 (2508) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $96.75 | $95.03 | -$1.72 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $78.89 | $77.28 | -$1.62 | 5% 18-315 (333) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $28.63 | $28.1 | -$0.53 | 28% 153-400 (553) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $24.11 | $24.35 | +$0.24 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $21.01 | $20.57 | -$0.44 | 34% 150-294 (444) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $17.63 | $17.42 | -$0.21 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $24.8 | $14.24 | +$0.08 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $4.94 | $4.87 | -$0.07 | 4% 17-463 (480) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $2.5 | $2.44 | -$0.06 | 100% 93-0 (93) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $1.09 | $1.06 | -$0.02 | 36% 462-806 (1268) |
Invested
$104.33
Value
$102.27
PnL
-$2.05
Record
32%
811-1697 (2508)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$96.75
Value
$95.03
PnL
-$1.72
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$78.89
Value
$77.28
PnL
-$1.62
Record
5%
18-315 (333)
Invested
$28.63
Value
$28.1
PnL
-$0.53
Record
28%
153-400 (553)
Invested
$24.11
Value
$24.35
PnL
+$0.24
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$21.01
Value
$20.57
PnL
-$0.44
Record
34%
150-294 (444)
Invested
$17.63
Value
$17.42
PnL
-$0.21
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
Invested
$24.8
Value
$14.24
PnL
+$0.08
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$4.94
Value
$4.87
PnL
-$0.07
Record
4%
17-463 (480)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.44
PnL
-$0.06
Record
100%
93-0 (93)
Invested
$1.09
Value
$1.06
PnL
-$0.02
Record
36%
462-806 (1268)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
mildwindow27
No — $102.27
Lucerys
No — $95.03
graynotebook19
No — $77.28
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
No — $28.1
241532532432
No — $24.35
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
No — $20.57
qwen300.fund
No — $17.42
ghorrock
No — $14.24
anothercoin
No — $4.87
1DVSBSTD
No — $2.44