Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 31?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 54¢ · $351 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$350.99
-$9.99
Research grade
NeutralNo at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 88.3¢ | $224.94 | $314.77 | +$89.83 | 59% 1800-1250 (3050) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $17.5 | $188.1 | +$170.6 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 88.3¢ | $207.44 | $126.66 | -$80.78 | |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87.1¢ | $37.25 | $18.1 | -$10.09 | 57% 13705-10482 (24187) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.1¢ | $32.78 | $13.08 | +$0.1 | 53% 6540-5754 (12294) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 58.3¢ | $5.75 | $5.04 | -$0.01 | 20% 312-1272 (1584) |
Invested
$224.94
Value
$314.77
PnL
+$89.83
Record
59%
1800-1250 (3050)
Both legs:
Invested
$37.25
Value
$18.1
PnL
-$10.09
Record
57%
13705-10482 (24187)
Invested
$32.78
Value
$13.08
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
6540-5754 (12294)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$5.75
Value
$5.04
PnL
-$0.01
Record
20%
312-1272 (1584)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.