Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 30?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 99¢ · $196 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$196.28
$51.18
42.7¢ → 99.3¢
+132% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 40.6¢ | $56.44 | $102.85 | +$46.4 | 56% 357-286 (643) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Yesavg 49.7¢ | $59.21 | $74.54 | +$15.33 | 59% 1714-1183 (2897) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 41.5¢ | $6.43 | $14.01 | +$7.58 | 57% 13509-10335 (23844) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Noavg 19.8¢ | $20.11 | $3.05 | -$17.07 | 47% 628-714 (1342) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $2.9 | $1.84 | -$1.06 | 50% 1747-1730 (3477) |
Invested
$56.44
Value
$102.85
PnL
+$46.4
Record
56%
357-286 (643)
Invested
$59.21
Value
$74.54
PnL
+$15.33
Record
59%
1714-1183 (2897)
Invested
$6.43
Value
$14.01
PnL
+$7.58
Record
57%
13509-10335 (23844)
Invested
$20.11
Value
$3.05
PnL
-$17.07
Record
47%
628-714 (1342)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$1.84
PnL
-$1.06
Record
50%
1747-1730 (3477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.