Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on October 30?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 61¢ · $485 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$485
$0.58
63¢ → 60.5¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 63.3¢ | $410.64 | $411.6 | +$0.96 | 47% 606-688 (1294) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $36.6 | $36.9 | +$0.3 | 61% 20778-13190 (33968) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $26.74 | $20.49 | -$0.16 | 57% 13319-10177 (23496) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $9.7 | $9.18 | -$0.52 | 50% 1694-1679 (3373) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $7.57 | $7.2 | -$0 | 24% 285-919 (1204) |
Invested
$410.64
Value
$411.6
PnL
+$0.96
Record
47%
606-688 (1294)
balthazar<$100Invested
$36.6
Value
$36.9
PnL
+$0.3
Record
61%
20778-13190 (33968)
Invested
$26.74
Value
$20.49
PnL
-$0.16
Record
57%
13319-10177 (23496)
Invested
$9.7
Value
$9.18
PnL
-$0.52
Record
50%
1694-1679 (3373)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$7.57
Value
$7.2
PnL
-$0
Record
24%
285-919 (1204)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.