Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on October 29?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 30¢ · $251 held · ends Oct 29

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$250.73

Combined PnL

$11.97

Smart Money Entry

25.4¢ → 29.5¢

+16% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$168.66

Total Shares625

Combined PnL+$10.01

No2 traders

Total Value$82.07

Total Shares109

Combined PnL+$1.96

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 25¢	$142.82	$153.95	+$11.12	46% 582-671 (1253)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 71¢	$70.07	$72.07	+$2	50% 1648-1634 (3282)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 29.8¢	$14.3	$12.96	-$1.34	60% 1580-1035 (2615)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 72¢	$11.09	$10.01	-$0.04	28% 280-738 (1018)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$5.89	$1.75	+$0.23	57% 13102-9987 (23089)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$142.82

Value

$153.95

PnL

+$11.12

Record

46%

582-671 (1253)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$70.07

Value

$72.07

PnL

+$2

Record

50%

1648-1634 (3282)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.3

Value

$12.96

PnL

-$1.34

Record

60%

1580-1035 (2615)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$11.09

Value

$10.01

PnL

-$0.04

Record

28%

280-738 (1018)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.89

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0.23

Record

57%

13102-9987 (23089)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.