Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 28?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 42¢ · $629 held · ends Oct 28

Yes42¢No58¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$628.56

Combined PnL

$45.51

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$304.84

Total Shares661

Combined PnL+$52.29

No3 traders

Total Value$250.57

Total Shares295

Combined PnL-$6.78

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 29.4¢	$252.55	$304.84	+$52.29	51% 575-544 (1119)
Istaroth	Noavg 68.1¢	$168.5	$160.41	-$6.1	29% 279-667 (946)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 67.6¢	$81.25	$81.07	-$0.18	50% 1636-1625 (3261)
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Yesavg 35.7¢	$75.92	$73.15	-$2.77	61% 1552-1005 (2557)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.7¢	$46.8	$43.89	-$2.91
└ No leg	Noavg 66.2¢	$29.12	$29.26	+$0.14
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 67¢	$9.6	$9.1	-$0.5	57% 12984-9900 (22884)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$252.55

Value

$304.84

PnL

+$52.29

Record

51%

575-544 (1119)

Istaroth

Invested

$168.5

Value

$160.41

PnL

-$6.1

Record

29%

279-667 (946)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$81.25

Value

$81.07

PnL

-$0.18

Record

50%

1636-1625 (3261)

241532532432ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.92

Value

$73.15

PnL

-$2.77

Record

61%

1552-1005 (2557)

Both legs:

Yes$46.835.7¢-$2.91

No$29.1266.2¢+$0.14

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.1

PnL

-$0.5

Record

57%

12984-9900 (22884)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.