Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on November 8?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (45%) · Yes at 100¢ · $448 held · ended Nov 8

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 45%

Total Value

$448.07

Combined PnL

-$95.8

Smart Money Entry

84.9¢ → 100¢

+18% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$425.51

Total Shares465

Combined PnL+$14.96

No6 traders

Total Value$22.56

Total Shares253

Combined PnL-$110.76

Yes — 45%No — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Yesavg 99.9¢	$254.68	$254.87	+$0.19	97% 522-14 (536)
balthazar<$100	Yesavg 81.7¢	$76.85	$91.42	+$14.56	34% 33217-64988 (98205)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$79.41	$55.25	+$2.59	13% 603-4221 (4824)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 93.6¢	$82.4	$14.76	-$67.64	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 96.3¢	$11.86	$12.06	+$0.2	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Yesavg 89.3¢	$18.33	$11.91	-$2.58	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$20.13	$5.23	-$14.9	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	No	$1.84	$1.84	+$0	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 42.5¢	$7.26	$0.47	-$6.79	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 55.3¢	$17.1	$0.19	-$16.91	44% 2445-3051 (5496)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 41.3¢	$4.59	$0.07	-$4.52	28% 3048-7956 (11004)

1DVSBSTD

Yes

Invested

$254.68

Value

$254.87

PnL

+$0.19

Record

97%

522-14 (536)

balthazar<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.85

Value

$91.42

PnL

+$14.56

Record

34%

33217-64988 (98205)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.41

Value

$55.25

PnL

+$2.59

Record

13%

603-4221 (4824)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$82.4

Value

$14.76

PnL

-$67.64

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.86

Value

$12.06

PnL

+$0.2

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.33

Value

$11.91

PnL

-$2.58

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$20.13

Value

$5.23

PnL

-$14.9

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$1.84

Value

$1.84

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$7.26

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$6.79

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$17.1

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$16.91

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$4.59

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$4.52

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.