Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on November 6?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 99¢ · $707 held · ends Nov 6

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$706.59

Combined PnL

$339.68

Smart Money Entry

31¢ → 99.4¢

+220% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$694.48

Total Shares871

Combined PnL+$314.25

No4 traders

Total Value$12.11

Total Shares358

Combined PnL+$25.43

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 28.9¢	$462.4	$407.46	+$273.41	38% 858-1404 (2262)
HE HellYeahTrader	Yesavg 33.8¢	$112.76	$253.64	+$22.29	56% 724-559 (1283)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$7.4	$15.2	+$7.8	53% 23766-20936 (44702)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 36.5¢	$6.91	$14.38	+$7.47	26% 7339-21107 (28446)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 18.7¢	$7.98	$9.94	+$1.96	58% 21302-15462 (36764)
12 123987456<$100	Yesavg 10.5¢	$0.53	$3.8	+$3.27	42% 2357-3224 (5581)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 18.3¢	$39.03	$1.08	+$4.65	52% 30973-28992 (59965)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 3¢	$4.97	$0.99	-$3.59	19% 2903-12326 (15229)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 70.6¢	$46.37	$0.1	+$22.4	53% 8597-7672 (16269)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$462.4

Value

$407.46

PnL

+$273.41

Record

38%

858-1404 (2262)

HellYeahTrader

Yes

Invested

$112.76

Value

$253.64

PnL

+$22.29

Record

56%

724-559 (1283)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.4

Value

$15.2

PnL

+$7.8

Record

53%

23766-20936 (44702)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.91

Value

$14.38

PnL

+$7.47

Record

26%

7339-21107 (28446)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$7.98

Value

$9.94

PnL

+$1.96

Record

58%

21302-15462 (36764)

123987456<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

$3.8

PnL

+$3.27

Record

42%

2357-3224 (5581)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$39.03

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$4.65

Record

52%

30973-28992 (59965)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$4.97

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$3.59

Record

19%

2903-12326 (15229)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$46.37

Value

$0.1

PnL

+$22.4

Record

53%

8597-7672 (16269)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.