Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on November 5?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $225 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$225.04
-$13.65
99¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Mature
23h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $85.67 | $85.85 | +$0.18 | 42% 1221-1710 (2931) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $59.14 | $59.05 | +$1.35 | 58% 20250-14870 (35120) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.6¢ | $138.54 | $40.34 | +$0.08 | 53% 29736-26607 (56343) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $38.52 | $38.82 | +$0.3 | 58% 12041-8590 (20631) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $1.41 | $0.6 | -$0.81 | 54% 10281-8887 (19168) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $15.14 | $0.38 | -$14.76 | 43% 817-1080 (1897) |
Invested
$85.67
Value
$85.85
PnL
+$0.18
Record
42%
1221-1710 (2931)
Invested
$59.14
Value
$59.05
PnL
+$1.35
Record
58%
20250-14870 (35120)
balthazarInvested
$138.54
Value
$40.34
PnL
+$0.08
Record
53%
29736-26607 (56343)
Invested
$38.52
Value
$38.82
PnL
+$0.3
Record
58%
12041-8590 (20631)
Invested
$1.41
Value
$0.6
PnL
-$0.81
Record
54%
10281-8887 (19168)
Invested
$15.14
Value
$0.38
PnL
-$14.76
Record
43%
817-1080 (1897)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.