Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on November 5?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $379 held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$378.89

Combined PnL

$102.85

Smart Money Entry

87.3¢ → 100¢

+14% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$378.1

Total Shares376

Combined PnL+$2.74

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.79

Total Shares264

Combined PnL+$100.11

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$199.8	$199.8	+$0	96% 159-6 (165)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99¢	$89.99	$59.82	+$0.42	53% 29797-26632 (56429)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 35.9¢	$26.71	$46.68	+$0.33	42% 1234-1717 (2951)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 68.7¢	$45	$42.82	-$2.18	54% 10311-8906 (19217)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 85.3¢	$78.89	$28.98	+$4.18	58% 20305-14907 (35212)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$254.81	$0.76	+$106.79	42% 821-1112 (1933)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 74.4¢	$9.01	$0.03	-$6.68	27% 7006-19139 (26145)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$199.8

Value

$199.8

PnL

+$0

Record

96%

159-6 (165)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$89.99

Value

$59.82

PnL

+$0.42

Record

53%

29797-26632 (56429)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$26.71

Value

$46.68

PnL

+$0.33

Record

42%

1234-1717 (2951)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$45

Value

$42.82

PnL

-$2.18

Record

54%

10311-8906 (19217)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$78.89

Value

$28.98

PnL

+$4.18

Record

58%

20305-14907 (35212)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$254.81

Value

$0.76

PnL

+$106.79

Record

42%

821-1112 (1933)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.01

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.68

Record

27%

7006-19139 (26145)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.