Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on November 4?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $130 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$130.49
$0.27
99.8¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.8¢ | $109.8 | $109.89 | +$0.09 | 79% 12035-3234 (15269) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20.37 | $20.37 | -$0 | 47% 1613-1794 (3407) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.05 | $0.23 | +$0.18 | 38% 977-1591 (2568) |
LucerysInvested
$109.8
Value
$109.89
PnL
+$0.09
Record
79%
12035-3234 (15269)
Invested
$20.37
Value
$20.37
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
1613-1794 (3407)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.23
PnL
+$0.18
Record
38%
977-1591 (2568)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.