Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on November 15?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $485 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$484.6

Combined PnL

-$18.94

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$481.71

Total Shares482

Combined PnL+$0.19

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.89

Total Shares437

Combined PnL-$19.14

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$306.59	$306.76	+$0.17	98% 1504-23 (1527)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$89.23	$89.19	-$0.04	58% 820-591 (1411)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$24.31	$23.07	-$0.24	57% 800-608 (1408)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98¢	$38.47	$20.2	+$0.62	53% 2122-1900 (4022)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$22.36	$19.98	-$0.21	28% 3261-8293 (11554)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$11.9	$11.8	-$0.1	51% 818-797 (1615)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.06	$5.07	+$0.01	49% 877-897 (1774)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$3.88	$3.88	-$0	59% 827-567 (1394)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.95	$1.85	+$0.9	14% 97-580 (677)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.78	$1.77	-$0	51% 901-849 (1750)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$16.06	$0.79	-$15.26	54% 1232-1038 (2270)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.02	$0.25	-$4.77	53% 2324-2038 (4362)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$306.59

Value

$306.76

PnL

+$0.17

Record

98%

1504-23 (1527)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$89.23

Value

$89.19

PnL

-$0.04

Record

58%

820-591 (1411)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$24.31

Value

$23.07

PnL

-$0.24

Record

57%

800-608 (1408)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$38.47

Value

$20.2

PnL

+$0.62

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$22.36

Value

$19.98

PnL

-$0.21

Record

28%

3261-8293 (11554)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$11.9

Value

$11.8

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

818-797 (1615)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.07

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

877-897 (1774)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$3.88

Value

$3.88

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.95

Value

$1.85

PnL

+$0.9

Record

14%

97-580 (677)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$1.78

Value

$1.77

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

901-849 (1750)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.06

Value

$0.79

PnL

-$15.26

Record

54%

1232-1038 (2270)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.02

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$4.77

Record

53%

2324-2038 (4362)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.