Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on November 15?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 4.4¢ · $30 held · ends Nov 15

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$29.8

Combined PnL

-$10.58

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$19.69

Total Shares19

Combined PnL+$1.7

Yes5 traders

Total Value$10.11

Total Shares253

Combined PnL-$12.29

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 96¢	$41.46	$10.56	-$0.66	42% 754-1062 (1816)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$16.06	$7.07	-$8.99	54% 1232-1038 (2270)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 85.2¢	$9.66	$4.77	+$2.44	53% 2078-1852 (3930)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 97¢	$2.5	$2.47	-$0.03	98% 1504-23 (1527)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.02	$2.21	-$2.81	53% 2324-2038 (4362)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$1.94	$1.88	-$0.06	51% 901-849 (1750)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$1.1	$0.74	-$0.36	71% 917-377 (1294)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$0.17	$0.05	-$0.12	14% 97-580 (677)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$0.04	$0.04	+$0	59% 827-567 (1394)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$41.46

Value

$10.56

PnL

-$0.66

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.06

Value

$7.07

PnL

-$8.99

Record

54%

1232-1038 (2270)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.66

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$2.44

Record

53%

2078-1852 (3930)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.47

PnL

-$0.03

Record

98%

1504-23 (1527)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.02

Value

$2.21

PnL

-$2.81

Record

53%

2324-2038 (4362)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$1.94

Value

$1.88

PnL

-$0.06

Record

51%

901-849 (1750)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.74

PnL

-$0.36

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.12

Record

14%

97-580 (677)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.7%

4.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1668.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

1768.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.