Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on November 15?

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (87%) · No at 99¢ · $434 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 87%

Total Value

$434.39

Combined PnL

$30.48

Smart Money Entry

89.6¢ → 99.5¢

+11% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$419.25

Total Shares451

Combined PnL+$32.36

Yes2 traders

Total Value$15.13

Total Shares80

Combined PnL-$1.88

No — 87%Yes — 13%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$84.94	$83.6	-$1.34	59% 827-567 (1394)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 72.5¢	$199.74	$79.97	+$40.81	54% 1232-1038 (2270)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$51.73	$51.56	-$0.17	43% 5159-6926 (12085)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$46.48	$46.29	-$0.19	52% 865-790 (1655)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 78.3¢	$46.6	$46.19	-$0.41	71% 917-377 (1294)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$33.85	$33.31	-$0.54	58% 820-591 (1411)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$17.03	$16.77	-$0.27	47% 1197-1366 (2563)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 93¢	$19.01	$16.56	-$2.45	51% 818-797 (1615)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$15.51	$15.22	-$0.29	51% 901-849 (1750)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$12.29	$12.22	-$0.07	98% 1504-23 (1527)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.02	$10.49	+$5.47	53% 2324-2038 (4362)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 81.1¢	$17.52	$8.24	-$1.81	53% 2122-1900 (4022)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 97¢	$5.23	$5.18	-$0.05	57% 800-608 (1408)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.6¢	$72.85	$4.64	-$7.35	42% 754-1062 (1816)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$5.02	$4.16	-$0.87	49% 877-897 (1774)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$84.94

Value

$83.6

PnL

-$1.34

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$199.74

Value

$79.97

PnL

+$40.81

Record

54%

1232-1038 (2270)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$51.73

Value

$51.56

PnL

-$0.17

Record

43%

5159-6926 (12085)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$46.48

Value

$46.29

PnL

-$0.19

Record

52%

865-790 (1655)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$46.6

Value

$46.19

PnL

-$0.41

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$33.85

Value

$33.31

PnL

-$0.54

Record

58%

820-591 (1411)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$17.03

Value

$16.77

PnL

-$0.27

Record

47%

1197-1366 (2563)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$19.01

Value

$16.56

PnL

-$2.45

Record

51%

818-797 (1615)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$15.51

Value

$15.22

PnL

-$0.29

Record

51%

901-849 (1750)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$12.29

Value

$12.22

PnL

-$0.07

Record

98%

1504-23 (1527)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.02

Value

$10.49

PnL

+$5.47

Record

53%

2324-2038 (4362)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$17.52

Value

$8.24

PnL

-$1.81

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.23

Value

$5.18

PnL

-$0.05

Record

57%

800-608 (1408)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.85

Value

$4.64

PnL

-$7.35

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.02

Value

$4.16

PnL

-$0.87

Record

49%

877-897 (1774)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.