Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on November 15?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 93¢ · $375 held · ends Nov 15

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$375.17

Combined PnL

-$4.22

Smart Money Entry

72.4¢ → 92.5¢

+28% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$353.82

Total Shares520

Combined PnL+$5.84

Yes3 traders

Total Value$20.76

Total Shares56

Combined PnL-$10.06

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 64¢	$159.97	$114.89	+$5.12	53% 2324-2038 (4362)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 90.3¢	$63.21	$61.95	-$1.26	43% 5159-6926 (12085)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 78.7¢	$73.38	$54.78	-$18.59	47% 852-950 (1802)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 89¢	$37.74	$37.11	-$0.64	58% 820-591 (1411)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 51.6¢	$76.47	$35.66	+$22.15	42% 754-1062 (1816)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 81.8¢	$22.73	$24.33	+$1.59	51% 818-797 (1615)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 78.9¢	$19.2	$17.4	-$1.8	51% 901-849 (1750)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 32.5¢	$19.73	$10.4	-$2.41	53% 2122-1900 (4022)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 45.8¢	$14.86	$9.9	-$4.96	71% 917-377 (1294)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 65.5¢	$8.44	$7.71	-$0.73	49% 877-897 (1774)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 51.5¢	$3.16	$0.46	-$2.7	47% 1197-1366 (2563)

hello.67

Invested

$159.97

Value

$114.89

PnL

+$5.12

Record

53%

2324-2038 (4362)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$63.21

Value

$61.95

PnL

-$1.26

Record

43%

5159-6926 (12085)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$73.38

Value

$54.78

PnL

-$18.59

Record

47%

852-950 (1802)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$37.74

Value

$37.11

PnL

-$0.64

Record

58%

820-591 (1411)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$76.47

Value

$35.66

PnL

+$22.15

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$22.73

Value

$24.33

PnL

+$1.59

Record

51%

818-797 (1615)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$19.2

Value

$17.4

PnL

-$1.8

Record

51%

901-849 (1750)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.73

Value

$10.4

PnL

-$2.41

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.86

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$4.96

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$8.44

Value

$7.71

PnL

-$0.73

Record

49%

877-897 (1774)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.16

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$2.7

Record

47%

1197-1366 (2563)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.