Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on November 15?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 53¢ · $230 held · ends Nov 15

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$229.74

Combined PnL

-$2.56

Smart Money Entry

16.4¢ → 53¢

+224% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$109.76

Total Shares695

Combined PnL+$0.44

No4 traders

Total Value$61.41

Total Shares86

Combined PnL-$3

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Yesavg 16.2¢	$66.06	$73.18	+$7.12	54% 1232-1038 (2270)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 67.8¢	$54.34	$58.57	+$4.23	71% 917-377 (1294)
└ No leg	Noavg 67.8¢	$47.04	$38.15	-$8.89
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 16.1¢	$7.3	$20.42	+$13.12
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 73¢	$97.98	$32.16	-$2.19	30% 250-582 (832)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 21.3¢	$46.87	$17.49	-$19.52	42% 754-1062 (1816)
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$4.17	$16.42	+$12.26	14% 97-580 (677)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 68.7¢	$31.49	$16.33	-$3.73	53% 2078-1852 (3930)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$8.44	$11.33	+$2.89	65% 4350-2373 (6723)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$1.92	$2.27	+$0.35	47% 852-950 (1802)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 80¢	$1.57	$1.59	+$0.02	52% 865-790 (1655)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$0.08	$0.21	+$0.14	49% 877-897 (1774)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.09	$0.18	+$0.09	57% 800-608 (1408)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.06

Value

$73.18

PnL

+$7.12

Record

54%

1232-1038 (2270)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$54.34

Value

$58.57

PnL

+$4.23

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

Both legs:

No$47.0467.8¢-$8.89

Yes$7.316.1¢+$13.12

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$97.98

Value

$32.16

PnL

-$2.19

Record

30%

250-582 (832)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.87

Value

$17.49

PnL

-$19.52

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

LornaPredicts<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.17

Value

$16.42

PnL

+$12.26

Record

14%

97-580 (677)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$31.49

Value

$16.33

PnL

-$3.73

Record

53%

2078-1852 (3930)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$8.44

Value

$11.33

PnL

+$2.89

Record

65%

4350-2373 (6723)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.92

Value

$2.27

PnL

+$0.35

Record

47%

852-950 (1802)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$1.57

Value

$1.59

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

865-790 (1655)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.21

PnL

+$0.14

Record

49%

877-897 (1774)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$0.09

Record

57%

800-608 (1408)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.