Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on November 15?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $6 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$6.18

Combined PnL

-$63.93

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$4.14

Total Shares4

Combined PnL+$3.93

Yes8 traders

Total Value$2.04

Total Shares1,017

Combined PnL-$67.85

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 85.3¢	$39.61	$4.14	+$3.93	52% 2230-2031 (4261)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$16.05	$0.78	-$15.27	42% 763-1074 (1837)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$22.36	$0.49	-$21.87	57% 812-617 (1429)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$16.06	$0.35	-$15.7	54% 1234-1038 (2272)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.36	$0.14	-$6.22	42% 5184-7017 (12201)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.02	$0.11	-$4.91	53% 2330-2056 (4386)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.84	$0.08	-$0.76	14% 98-588 (686)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.81	$0.07	-$2.59	28% 3272-8320 (11592)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.55	$0.01	-$0.53	24% 767-2452 (3219)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$39.61

Value

$4.14

PnL

+$3.93

Record

52%

2230-2031 (4261)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.05

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$15.27

Record

42%

763-1074 (1837)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.36

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$21.87

Record

57%

812-617 (1429)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.06

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$15.7

Record

54%

1234-1038 (2272)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.36

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$6.22

Record

42%

5184-7017 (12201)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.02

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$4.91

Record

53%

2330-2056 (4386)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.84

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.76

Record

14%

98-588 (686)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.81

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$2.59

Record

28%

3272-8320 (11592)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.53

Record

24%

767-2452 (3219)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.