Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on November 14?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 100¢ · $293 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

Total Value

$292.81

Combined PnL

-$8.48

Smart Money Entry

98.2¢ → 99.8¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$291.16

Total Shares292

Combined PnL+$5.72

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.65

Total Shares760

Combined PnL-$14.2

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 97.6¢	$178.78	$182.82	+$4.03	40% 620-939 (1559)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$72.95	$33.19	+$1.77	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$27.36	$27.32	-$0.04	58% 679-500 (1179)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$15.15	$15.13	-$0.02	63% 714-428 (1142)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$13.2	$13.18	-$0.02	49% 731-768 (1499)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$6.27	$6.27	+$0	58% 699-503 (1202)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.02	$5.02	-$0	51% 742-710 (1452)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$4.74	$4.74	+$0	50% 697-689 (1386)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$3.5	$3.5	+$0	99% 1195-12 (1207)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$1.81	$0.72	-$1.08	65% 4289-2310 (6599)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.5	$0.62	+$0.12	13% 76-495 (571)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.27	$0.16	-$7.11	55% 1088-874 (1962)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.26	$0.14	-$6.13	31% 146-327 (473)

241532532432

Invested

$178.78

Value

$182.82

PnL

+$4.03

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$72.95

Value

$33.19

PnL

+$1.77

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$27.36

Value

$27.32

PnL

-$0.04

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$15.15

Value

$15.13

PnL

-$0.02

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$13.2

Value

$13.18

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$6.27

Value

$6.27

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.02

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.74

Value

$4.74

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

1195-12 (1207)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.81

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$1.08

Record

65%

4289-2310 (6599)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.62

PnL

+$0.12

Record

13%

76-495 (571)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.27

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$7.11

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.26

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$6.13

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.