Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on November 14?

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 100¢ · $240 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$239.69

Combined PnL

-$14.34

Smart Money Entry

97.9¢ → 99.9¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$239.43

Total Shares240

Combined PnL+$4.8

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.26

Total Shares184

Combined PnL-$19.13

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 96.9¢	$145.42	$149.85	+$4.43	40% 620-939 (1559)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$27.34	$27.36	+$0.03	51% 782-754 (1536)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$15.22	$15.23	+$0.02	48% 757-814 (1571)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$15.14	$15.15	+$0.02	58% 699-503 (1202)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$13.2	$13.2	+$0	63% 714-428 (1142)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$6.18	$6.28	+$0.1	51% 742-710 (1452)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$5	$5.02	+$0.02	49% 731-768 (1499)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$4.64	$4.75	+$0.11	58% 679-500 (1179)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 97¢	$2.5	$2.57	+$0.07	99% 1195-12 (1207)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.27	$0.16	-$7.11	55% 1088-874 (1962)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.15	$0.08	-$0.08	13% 76-495 (571)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$79.3	$0.02	-$7.85	27% 667-1774 (2441)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.26	$0.01	-$4.24	31% 146-327 (473)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.31	$0.01	+$0.14	53% 1572-1421 (2993)

241532532432

Invested

$145.42

Value

$149.85

PnL

+$4.43

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$27.34

Value

$27.36

PnL

+$0.03

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$15.22

Value

$15.23

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$15.14

Value

$15.15

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$13.2

Value

$13.2

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$6.18

Value

$6.28

PnL

+$0.1

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

Value

$5.02

PnL

+$0.02

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.64

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$0.11

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.57

PnL

+$0.07

Record

99%

1195-12 (1207)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.27

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$7.11

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.08

Record

13%

76-495 (571)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.3

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$7.85

Record

27%

667-1774 (2441)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.26

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.24

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0.14

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.