Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on November 14?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $169 held · ends Nov 14

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$168.99

Combined PnL

-$21.34

Smart Money Entry

91.8¢ → 98.7¢

+7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$167.28

Total Shares170

Combined PnL-$2.64

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.71

Total Shares151

Combined PnL-$18.7

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 91.4¢	$138.95	$113.44	-$5.98	40% 620-939 (1559)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 93.2¢	$23.58	$24.95	+$1.37	49% 731-768 (1499)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99¢	$13.08	$13.03	-$0.05	58% 699-503 (1202)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$6.77	$6.93	+$0.15	63% 714-428 (1142)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 78¢	$3.7	$4.69	+$0.98	48% 757-814 (1571)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 78.1¢	$3.36	$4.24	+$0.88	51% 782-754 (1536)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.27	$0.88	-$6.39	55% 1088-874 (1962)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$73.04	$0.3	-$7.16	27% 667-1774 (2441)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.1¢	$3.57	$0.28	-$3.29	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.2¢	$1.9	$0.19	-$1.71	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$0.2	$0.06	-$0.14	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$0.01	$0.02	+$0	13% 76-495 (571)

241532532432

Invested

$138.95

Value

$113.44

PnL

-$5.98

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$23.58

Value

$24.95

PnL

+$1.37

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$13.08

Value

$13.03

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$6.77

Value

$6.93

PnL

+$0.15

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.7

Value

$4.69

PnL

+$0.98

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.36

Value

$4.24

PnL

+$0.88

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.27

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$6.39

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.04

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$7.16

Record

27%

667-1774 (2441)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.57

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$3.29

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$1.71

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.14

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0

Record

13%

76-495 (571)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.