Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on November 14?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 81¢ · $194 held · ends Nov 14

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$194.2

Combined PnL

-$16.16

Smart Money Entry

80.2¢ → 80.8¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$58.48

Total Shares324

Combined PnL-$24.55

No8 traders

Total Value$135.29

Total Shares144

Combined PnL+$8.39

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 31.7¢	$79.42	$52.34	-$27.08	40% 620-939 (1559)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 77.2¢	$49.62	$50.66	+$1.05	72% 823-323 (1146)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 88.6¢	$24.27	$25.87	+$1.6	50% 697-689 (1386)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 89.4¢	$25.37	$22.45	-$2.92	51% 742-710 (1452)
SU suntori<$100	Noavg 66.1¢	$19.04	$13.6	+$3.84	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 86.2¢	$7.16	$7.85	+$0.69	49% 731-768 (1499)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 67¢	$7.21	$6.83	+$2.54	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 61.9¢	$2.66	$4.06	+$1.4	63% 714-428 (1142)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 75.2¢	$3.78	$3.98	+$0.19	58% 699-503 (1202)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$36.42	$3.29	+$1.45	27% 667-1774 (2441)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.82	$1.72	+$0.9	46% 1071-1282 (2353)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$0.95	$1.13	+$0.18	65% 4289-2310 (6599)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.42

Value

$52.34

PnL

-$27.08

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$49.62

Value

$50.66

PnL

+$1.05

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$24.27

Value

$25.87

PnL

+$1.6

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$25.37

Value

$22.45

PnL

-$2.92

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

suntori<$100

Invested

$19.04

Value

$13.6

PnL

+$3.84

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$7.16

Value

$7.85

PnL

+$0.69

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.21

Value

$6.83

PnL

+$2.54

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$2.66

Value

$4.06

PnL

+$1.4

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$3.78

Value

$3.98

PnL

+$0.19

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.42

Value

$3.29

PnL

+$1.45

Record

27%

667-1774 (2441)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

$1.72

PnL

+$0.9

Record

46%

1071-1282 (2353)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.95

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$0.18

Record

65%

4289-2310 (6599)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.5%

80.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.