Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on November 14?

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 77¢ · $648 held · ends Nov 14

Yes77¢No23¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$647.73

Combined PnL

$352.35

Smart Money Entry

33.7¢ → 77.1¢

+129% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes77%

No23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$637.4

Total Shares835

Combined PnL+$372.1

No8 traders

Total Value$10.34

Total Shares136

Combined PnL-$19.75

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Yesavg 33.4¢	$150.44	$343.28	+$233.28	40% 620-939 (1559)
HE hello.67	Yesavg 36¢	$353.2	$256.66	+$98.01	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 14.8¢	$84.49	$30.88	+$32.53	31% 146-327 (473)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$2.9	$4.7	+$1.8	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$2.2	$2.79	+$0.59	65% 4289-2310 (6599)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 36.2¢	$14.31	$2.37	-$11.94	72% 823-323 (1146)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$4.33	$1.53	-$2.81	51% 782-754 (1536)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 10.5¢	$2.56	$1.46	-$1.1	63% 714-428 (1142)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.45	$0.94	+$6.16	46% 1071-1282 (2353)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 62.1¢	$0.62	$0.94	+$0.32	48% 757-814 (1571)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 30.2¢	$3.65	$0.72	-$2.93	50% 697-689 (1386)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 9.3¢	$1.03	$0.67	-$0.37	51% 742-710 (1452)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$1.14	$0.49	-$0.65	58% 699-503 (1202)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 16.5¢	$0.85	$0.31	-$0.54	58% 679-500 (1179)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$150.44

Value

$343.28

PnL

+$233.28

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$353.2

Value

$256.66

PnL

+$98.01

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.49

Value

$30.88

PnL

+$32.53

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$1.8

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.79

PnL

+$0.59

Record

65%

4289-2310 (6599)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$14.31

Value

$2.37

PnL

-$11.94

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$4.33

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$2.81

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$2.56

Value

$1.46

PnL

-$1.1

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$0.94

PnL

+$6.16

Record

46%

1071-1282 (2353)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.62

Value

$0.94

PnL

+$0.32

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$3.65

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$2.93

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$1.03

Value

$0.67

PnL

-$0.37

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$1.14

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$0.65

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$0.54

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.0%

77.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.