Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on November 12?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 100¢ · $90 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$90.11

Combined PnL

-$13.07

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$89.88

Total Shares90

Combined PnL-$3.19

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.24

Total Shares121

Combined PnL-$9.87

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$59.49	$59.61	+$0.12	53% 5912-5294 (11206)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.98	$9.99	-$0.9	32% 2924-6249 (9173)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.15	$5.15	-$0	47% 484-554 (1038)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$31.9	$4.99	-$2.41	79% 502-133 (635)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$4.99	-$0	67% 435-211 (646)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	99% 398-3 (401)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.03	$1.35	-$0	53% 459-411 (870)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$6.44	$1.29	-$0	68% 442-211 (653)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.09	$0.22	-$9.87	68% 2115-1000 (3115)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$0.01	-$0	55% 729-596 (1325)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$32.62	$0.01	-$0	49% 492-514 (1006)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$59.49

Value

$59.61

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

5912-5294 (11206)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$9.99

PnL

-$0.9

Record

32%

2924-6249 (9173)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

$5.15

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

484-554 (1038)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$31.9

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$2.41

Record

79%

502-133 (635)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$0

Record

67%

435-211 (646)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

398-3 (401)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

459-411 (870)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.44

Value

$1.29

PnL

-$0

Record

68%

442-211 (653)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.09

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$9.87

Record

68%

2115-1000 (3115)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.62

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

492-514 (1006)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.