Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on November 12?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 36¢ · $297 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$296.84
$12.07
Research grade
NeutralYes at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 32.8¢ | $118.54 | $131.89 | +$13.35 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 63.5¢ | $70.42 | $70.46 | +$0.04 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 63.5¢ | $53.38 | $53.34 | -$0.04 | 29% 237-575 (812) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $39.41 | $37.93 | -$1.48 | 53% 5511-4919 (10430) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $3.02 | $3.22 | +$0.2 | 79% 286-77 (363) |
Invested
$118.54
Value
$131.89
PnL
+$13.35
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$70.42
Value
$70.46
PnL
+$0.04
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$53.38
Value
$53.34
PnL
-$0.04
Record
29%
237-575 (812)
Invested
$39.41
Value
$37.93
PnL
-$1.48
Record
53%
5511-4919 (10430)
Invested
$3.02
Value
$3.22
PnL
+$0.2
Record
79%
286-77 (363)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.