Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on November 12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 56¢ · $331 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$331.02
-$0.29
55¢ → 55.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 54.9¢ | $149.03 | $149.03 | +$0 | 68% 2062-949 (3011) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100 | Noavg 54.8¢ | $77.97 | $78.13 | +$0.16 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $49.68 | $50.49 | +$0.81 | 30% 256-590 (846) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 56.7¢ | $33.85 | $32.78 | -$1.07 | 53% 5580-4967 (10547) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 57.8¢ | $12.13 | $11.52 | -$0.61 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40.1¢ | $8.66 | $9.07 | +$0.41 | 54% 461-396 (857) |
Invested
$149.03
Value
$149.03
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
2062-949 (3011)
Invested
$77.97
Value
$78.13
PnL
+$0.16
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$49.68
Value
$50.49
PnL
+$0.81
Record
30%
256-590 (846)
Invested
$33.85
Value
$32.78
PnL
-$1.07
Record
53%
5580-4967 (10547)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$12.13
Value
$11.52
PnL
-$0.61
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$8.66
Value
$9.07
PnL
+$0.41
Record
54%
461-396 (857)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.