Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 89¢ · $75 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$75
$3.09
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 84.5¢ | $38.64 | $39.79 | +$1.14 | 53% 5602-5022 (10624) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $17.01 | $18.27 | +$1.26 | 37% 3143-5368 (8511) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $8.1 | $8.29 | +$0.19 | 54% 493-423 (916) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $4.05 | $4.35 | +$0.3 | 30% 258-593 (851) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $4.11 | $4.31 | +$0.2 | 78% 316-88 (404) |
Invested
$38.64
Value
$39.79
PnL
+$1.14
Record
53%
5602-5022 (10624)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$17.01
Value
$18.27
PnL
+$1.26
Record
37%
3143-5368 (8511)
Invested
$8.1
Value
$8.29
PnL
+$0.19
Record
54%
493-423 (916)
Invested
$4.05
Value
$4.35
PnL
+$0.3
Record
30%
258-593 (851)
Invested
$4.11
Value
$4.31
PnL
+$0.2
Record
78%
316-88 (404)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.