Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on November 12?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $85 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$84.69

Combined PnL

-$44.27

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$84.46

Total Shares85

Combined PnL+$0.04

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.23

Total Shares466

Combined PnL-$44.31

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$84.42	$84.46	+$0.04	99% 578-5 (583)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$18.62	$0.1	-$18.52	30% 2933-6866 (9799)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.09	$0.06	-$10.03	64% 2125-1170 (3295)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.92	$0.03	-$5.39	36% 508-911 (1419)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.55	$0.03	-$4.52	47% 4801-5413 (10214)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.51	$0.02	-$3.49	19% 815-3564 (4379)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$21.43	$0	-$2.34	37% 3433-5867 (9300)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.02	$0	-$0.02	63% 445-260 (705)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$84.42

Value

$84.46

PnL

+$0.04

Record

99%

578-5 (583)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.62

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$18.52

Record

30%

2933-6866 (9799)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.09

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$10.03

Record

64%

2125-1170 (3295)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.92

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.39

Record

36%

508-911 (1419)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.55

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.52

Record

47%

4801-5413 (10214)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.51

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.49

Record

19%

815-3564 (4379)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.43

Value

PnL

-$2.34

Record

37%

3433-5867 (9300)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

PnL

-$0.02

Record

63%

445-260 (705)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.