Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on November 12?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $120 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 75%
$120.17
-$42.6
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $99.9 | $99.95 | +$0.05 | 99% 570-5 (575) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.99 | +$0.01 | 53% 5995-5369 (11364) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $16.99 | $0.1 | -$16.89 | 30% 2929-6854 (9783) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $10.09 | $0.06 | -$10.03 | 65% 2122-1162 (3284) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.92 | $0.03 | -$5.39 | 36% 506-908 (1414) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.55 | $0.03 | -$4.52 | 47% 4795-5410 (10205) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.51 | $0.02 | -$3.49 | 19% 814-3563 (4377) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $21.43 | $0 | -$2.34 | 37% 3428-5859 (9287) |
Invested
$99.9
Value
$99.95
PnL
+$0.05
Record
99%
570-5 (575)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
5995-5369 (11364)
Invested
$16.99
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$16.89
Record
30%
2929-6854 (9783)
Invested
$10.09
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$10.03
Record
65%
2122-1162 (3284)
Invested
$9.92
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$5.39
Record
36%
506-908 (1414)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$4.55
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$4.52
Record
47%
4795-5410 (10205)
Invested
$3.51
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$3.49
Record
19%
814-3563 (4377)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$21.43
Value
$0
PnL
-$2.34
Record
37%
3428-5859 (9287)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.