Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on November 11?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 84¢ · $90 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$90.02
-$3.86
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 82.5¢ | $43.66 | $38.68 | -$3.54 | 24% 163-516 (679) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $15.8 | $16.2 | +$0.4 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.1¢ | $15.54 | $13.76 | -$1.78 | 69% 2060-944 (3004) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 82.4¢ | $17.25 | $10.31 | +$0.03 | 51% 263-254 (517) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.1¢ | $5.39 | $6.37 | +$0.98 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $4.64 | $4.7 | +$0.06 | 85% 441-76 (517) |
Invested
$43.66
Value
$38.68
PnL
-$3.54
Record
24%
163-516 (679)
Invested
$15.8
Value
$16.2
PnL
+$0.4
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
Invested
$15.54
Value
$13.76
PnL
-$1.78
Record
69%
2060-944 (3004)
Invested
$17.25
Value
$10.31
PnL
+$0.03
Record
51%
263-254 (517)
Invested
$5.39
Value
$6.37
PnL
+$0.98
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$4.64
Value
$4.7
PnL
+$0.06
Record
85%
441-76 (517)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.