Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on November 11?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 51¢ · $68 held · ends Nov 11

Yes51¢No49¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$68.04

Combined PnL

$6.1

Research grade

NeutralYes at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$49.47

Total Shares93

Combined PnL+$2.99

No3 traders

Total Value$18.56

Total Shares30

Combined PnL+$3.11

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 44.9¢	$23.8	$26.24	+$2.43	29% 237-575 (812)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 43.9¢	$18.21	$18.37	+$0.16	82% 506-111 (617)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$9.6	$12.6	+$3	53% 5511-4919 (10430)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 45.9¢	$4.47	$4.87	+$0.4	69% 2062-948 (3010)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$2.66	$3.16	+$0.5	44% 286-362 (648)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 64¢	$3.2	$2.8	-$0.4	37% 3085-5357 (8442)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.8

Value

$26.24

PnL

+$2.43

Record

29%

237-575 (812)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.21

Value

$18.37

PnL

+$0.16

Record

82%

506-111 (617)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$9.6

Value

$12.6

PnL

+$3

Record

53%

5511-4919 (10430)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.47

Value

$4.87

PnL

+$0.4

Record

69%

2062-948 (3010)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$2.66

Value

$3.16

PnL

+$0.5

Record

44%

286-362 (648)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$0.4

Record

37%

3085-5357 (8442)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 51%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.