Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on November 11?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 75¢ · $138 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$138.17
$0.39
72.3¢ → 74.5¢
+3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+5 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $66.42 | $64.54 | -$1.88 | 29% 237-575 (812) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $18.93 | $20.24 | +$1.31 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 68.6¢ | $15.53 | $13.16 | -$0.41 | 54% 383-321 (704) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $15.6 | $13 | -$2.6 | 53% 5511-4919 (10430) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.4¢ | $6.1 | $11.2 | +$5.1 | 12% 17-121 (138) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 79.8¢ | $10.16 | $8.98 | -$1.18 | 82% 506-111 (617) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $3.76 | $3.58 | -$0.18 | 41% 299-433 (732) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $3.25 | $3.47 | +$0.22 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
Invested
$66.42
Value
$64.54
PnL
-$1.88
Record
29%
237-575 (812)
Invested
$18.93
Value
$20.24
PnL
+$1.31
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$15.53
Value
$13.16
PnL
-$0.41
Record
54%
383-321 (704)
Invested
$15.6
Value
$13
PnL
-$2.6
Record
53%
5511-4919 (10430)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$6.1
Value
$11.2
PnL
+$5.1
Record
12%
17-121 (138)
Invested
$10.16
Value
$8.98
PnL
-$1.18
Record
82%
506-111 (617)
Invested
$3.76
Value
$3.58
PnL
-$0.18
Record
41%
299-433 (732)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$3.25
Value
$3.47
PnL
+$0.22
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.