Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on November 11?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $254 held · ends Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$253.66

Combined PnL

$0.97

Smart Money Entry

97.1¢ → 99.1¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$167.64

Total Shares177

Combined PnL-$4.19

Yes2 traders

Total Value$8.8

Total Shares319

Combined PnL+$5.16

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 97.9¢	$116.82	$112.16	-$4.66	69% 2062-948 (3010)
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 95.7¢	$62.05	$77.22	+$15.17	29% 237-575 (812)
└ No leg	Noavg 95.7¢	$57.4	$56.4	-$1
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 1.3¢	$4.65	$20.82	+$16.17
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$19.46	$18.8	-$0.66	53% 5511-4919 (10430)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.1¢	$49.31	$12.61	+$1.18	54% 383-321 (704)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$9.55	$9.82	+$0.27	82% 506-111 (617)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$9.87	$9.55	-$0.32	39% 303-465 (768)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$2.99	$7.64	+$4.65	12% 17-121 (138)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 94¢	$4.7	$4.7	+$0	37% 3085-5357 (8442)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$0.66	$1.16	+$0.5	66% 4086-2106 (6192)

hello.67

Invested

$116.82

Value

$112.16

PnL

-$4.66

Record

69%

2062-948 (3010)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$62.05

Value

$77.22

PnL

+$15.17

Record

29%

237-575 (812)

Both legs:

No$57.495.7¢-$1

Yes$4.651.3¢+$16.17

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.46

Value

$18.8

PnL

-$0.66

Record

53%

5511-4919 (10430)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$49.31

Value

$12.61

PnL

+$1.18

Record

54%

383-321 (704)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$9.55

Value

$9.82

PnL

+$0.27

Record

82%

506-111 (617)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$9.87

Value

$9.55

PnL

-$0.32

Record

39%

303-465 (768)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.99

Value

$7.64

PnL

+$4.65

Record

12%

17-121 (138)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

3085-5357 (8442)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.66

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$0.5

Record

66%

4086-2106 (6192)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.