Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on November 11?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 100¢ · $79 held · ends Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$79.3

Combined PnL

$0.35

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$79.25

Total Shares80

Combined PnL+$0.51

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.05

Total Shares105

Combined PnL-$0.16

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$21.78	$21.94	+$0.16	54% 383-321 (704)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$19.92	$19.88	-$0.04	53% 5511-4919 (10430)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$19.44	$19.87	+$0.43	29% 237-575 (812)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.13	$5.12	-$0.02	39% 624-957 (1581)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$4.99	$4.98	-$0.02	45% 273-328 (601)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$4.97	$4.97	-$0	37% 3085-5357 (8442)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$2.5	$2.49	-$0.01	99% 196-1 (197)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.21	$0.05	-$0.16	12% 17-121 (138)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$21.78

Value

$21.94

PnL

+$0.16

Record

54%

383-321 (704)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.92

Value

$19.88

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

5511-4919 (10430)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$19.44

Value

$19.87

PnL

+$0.43

Record

29%

237-575 (812)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.13

Value

$5.12

PnL

-$0.02

Record

39%

624-957 (1581)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$4.98

PnL

-$0.02

Record

45%

273-328 (601)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$4.97

Value

$4.97

PnL

-$0

Record

37%

3085-5357 (8442)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.49

PnL

-$0.01

Record

99%

196-1 (197)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.16

Record

12%

17-121 (138)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.