Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on November 10?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 96¢ · $252 held · ends Nov 10

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$252.49

Combined PnL

$12.33

Smart Money Entry

89.4¢ → 96.4¢

+8% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$251.82

Total Shares254

Combined PnL+$19.63

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.67

Total Shares56

Combined PnL-$7.31

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 90.7¢	$148.85	$162.1	+$13.25	2% 12-662 (674)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 87¢	$20.69	$20.67	-$0.01	17% 10-48 (58)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 94¢	$16.92	$17.78	+$0.86	36% 462-806 (1268)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84.1¢	$33.36	$14.75	+$1.6	51% 197-186 (383)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 81¢	$11.57	$12.59	+$1.02	89% 409-53 (462)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 94¢	$9.4	$9.88	+$0.48	34% 150-294 (444)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 77.9¢	$7.57	$9.6	+$2.03	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$2.5	$2.44	-$0.06	100% 93-0 (93)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 76¢	$1.54	$2	+$0.46	28% 153-400 (553)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$4.69	$0.47	-$4.22	21% 132-485 (617)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.4¢	$3.26	$0.17	-$3.08	30% 174-414 (588)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.03	$0.03	-$0	31% 163-361 (524)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$148.85

Value

$162.1

PnL

+$13.25

Record

12-662 (674)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$20.69

Value

$20.67

PnL

-$0.01

Record

17%

10-48 (58)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$16.92

Value

$17.78

PnL

+$0.86

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.36

Value

$14.75

PnL

+$1.6

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$11.57

Value

$12.59

PnL

+$1.02

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.88

PnL

+$0.48

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$7.57

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$2.03

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.44

PnL

-$0.06

Record

100%

93-0 (93)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$1.54

Value

PnL

+$0.46

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.69

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$4.22

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.26

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$3.08

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.