Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on November 10?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $87 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$86.72
-$93.29
26.5¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 69.8¢ | $63.72 | $57.59 | -$6.12 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.1¢ | $65.34 | $13.94 | -$51.4 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $40.07 | $6.51 | -$33.56 | 2% 12-662 (674) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.3¢ | $8.48 | $4.6 | -$1.99 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $3.78 | $3.78 | +$0 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $0.52 | $0.31 | -$0.21 | 31% 163-361 (524) |
Invested
$63.72
Value
$57.59
PnL
-$6.12
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
Invested
$65.34
Value
$13.94
PnL
-$51.4
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$40.07
Value
$6.51
PnL
-$33.56
Record
2%
12-662 (674)
Invested
$8.48
Value
$4.6
PnL
-$1.99
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$3.78
Value
$3.78
PnL
+$0
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
Invested
$0.52
Value
$0.31
PnL
-$0.21
Record
31%
163-361 (524)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.