Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 19°C on November 10?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $86 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$86.41

Combined PnL

-$41.34

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$85.98

Total Shares96

Combined PnL-$12

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.43

Total Shares213

Combined PnL-$29.33

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 87.7¢	$63.78	$55.01	-$8.77	17% 10-48 (58)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 87.5¢	$26.53	$24.37	-$2.17	89% 409-53 (462)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.4¢	$26.46	$6.6	-$1.07	51% 197-186 (383)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.7¢	$21.89	$0.32	-$21.57	21% 132-485 (617)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.8¢	$7.87	$0.11	-$7.76	2% 12-662 (674)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$63.78

Value

$55.01

PnL

-$8.77

Record

17%

10-48 (58)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$26.53

Value

$24.37

PnL

-$2.17

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$26.46

Value

$6.6

PnL

-$1.07

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.89

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$21.57

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.87

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$7.76

Record

12-662 (674)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.