Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on November 1?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 78¢ · $802 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$801.73
-$7.08
69¢ → 78¢
+13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 72.9¢ | $351.43 | $361.28 | -$9.35 | 59% 1862-1301 (3163) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 25.1¢ | $251.42 | $220.78 | -$30.64 | 47% 682-762 (1444) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 62¢ | $174.42 | $211 | +$32.35 | 55% 439-359 (798) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $8.11 | $8.67 | +$0.56 | 53% 6624-5811 (12435) |
Invested
$351.43
Value
$361.28
PnL
-$9.35
Record
59%
1862-1301 (3163)
Invested
$251.42
Value
$220.78
PnL
-$30.64
Record
47%
682-762 (1444)
Invested
$174.42
Value
$211
PnL
+$32.35
Record
55%
439-359 (798)
Invested
$8.11
Value
$8.67
PnL
+$0.56
Record
53%
6624-5811 (12435)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.