Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on November 1?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 67¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$176.89
83.9¢ → 67¢
-20% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 84¢ | $790.54 | $630.23 | -$160.31 | 50% 1863-1837 (3700) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 83.6¢ | $248.76 | $213.44 | -$28.06 | 19% 335-1419 (1754) |
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Yesavg 19.2¢ | $149.27 | $202.61 | -$24.91 | 59% 1862-1301 (3163) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 19.2¢ | $90.17 | $154.81 | -$17.46 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 77.4¢ | $55.26 | $47.8 | -$7.45 | |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $24.62 | $34.2 | +$11.48 | 55% 439-359 (798) |
Invested
$790.54
Value
$630.23
PnL
-$160.31
Record
50%
1863-1837 (3700)
IstarothInvested
$248.76
Value
$213.44
PnL
-$28.06
Record
19%
335-1419 (1754)
Invested
$149.27
Value
$202.61
PnL
-$24.91
Record
59%
1862-1301 (3163)
Both legs:
Invested
$24.62
Value
$34.2
PnL
+$11.48
Record
55%
439-359 (798)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.