Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on October 29?

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 87¢ · $379 held · ends Oct 29

Yes87¢No13¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 20%

Total Value

$379.01

Combined PnL

$96.86

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes87%

No13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$297.13

Total Shares782

Combined PnL+$92.11

No4 traders

Total Value$81.87

Total Shares162

Combined PnL+$4.75

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 26.2¢	$205.02	$297.13	+$92.11	47% 606-687 (1293)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Noavg 66¢	$54.55	$58.68	+$2.89	55% 302-247 (549)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$9.82	$12.18	+$2.36	52% 4925-4533 (9458)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 20.5¢	$21.65	$9.42	+$4.13	57% 13272-10114 (23386)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 59.2¢	$22.51	$1.6	-$4.62	53% 6381-5587 (11968)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$205.02

Value

$297.13

PnL

+$92.11

Record

47%

606-687 (1293)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Invested

$54.55

Value

$58.68

PnL

+$2.89

Record

55%

302-247 (549)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$9.82

Value

$12.18

PnL

+$2.36

Record

52%

4925-4533 (9458)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$21.65

Value

$9.42

PnL

+$4.13

Record

57%

13272-10114 (23386)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$22.51

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$4.62

Record

53%

6381-5587 (11968)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.