Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 28?

1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 60¢ · $863 held · ends Oct 28

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$863.19

Combined PnL

-$17.98

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 2 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$86.38

Total Shares144

Combined PnL-$15.79

Yes1 trader

Total Value$15.42

Total Shares39

Combined PnL-$2.19

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100	Yesavg 28.4¢	$523.96	$650.5	+$142.16	46% 556-647 (1203)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28.4¢	$296.04	$416.57	+$136.15
└ No leg	Noavg 58.5¢	$227.92	$233.93	+$6.01
HE hello.67ARB<$100	Yesavg 38.9¢	$115.76	$110.89	-$4.88	50% 1623-1615 (3238)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.9¢	$68.22	$70.13	+$1.91
└ No leg	Noavg 70¢	$47.54	$40.76	-$6.78
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 71¢	$102.17	$86.38	-$15.79	55% 217-181 (398)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$22.72	$15.42	-$2.19	53% 6235-5472 (11707)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$523.96

Value

$650.5

PnL

+$142.16

Record

46%

556-647 (1203)

Both legs:

Yes$296.0428.4¢+$136.15

No$227.9258.5¢+$6.01

hello.67ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$115.76

Value

$110.89

PnL

-$4.88

Record

50%

1623-1615 (3238)

Both legs:

Yes$68.2238.9¢+$1.91

No$47.5470¢-$6.78

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$102.17

Value

$86.38

PnL

-$15.79

Record

55%

217-181 (398)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.72

Value

$15.42

PnL

-$2.19

Record

53%

6235-5472 (11707)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 2 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.