Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on November 7?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $106 held · ends Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$105.62
-$13.52
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $92.4 | $92.23 | -$0.17 | 97% 287-8 (295) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | No | $13.23 | $13.23 | -$0.04 | 38% 2400-3836 (6236) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $6.96 | $0.13 | -$10.62 | 40% 851-1275 (2126) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $1.66 | $0.02 | -$1.64 | 43% 10647-14111 (24758) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.7¢ | $1.07 | $0.01 | -$1.06 | 42% 2368-3244 (5612) |
Invested
$92.4
Value
$92.23
PnL
-$0.17
Record
97%
287-8 (295)
Invested
$13.23
Value
$13.23
PnL
-$0.04
Record
38%
2400-3836 (6236)
Invested
$6.96
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$10.62
Record
40%
851-1275 (2126)
Invested
$1.66
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.64
Record
43%
10647-14111 (24758)
Invested
$1.07
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.06
Record
42%
2368-3244 (5612)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.