Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on November 16?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 76¢ · $163 held · ends Nov 16

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$162.64

Combined PnL

-$11.12

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$82.47

Total Shares402

Combined PnL-$15.52

No9 traders

Total Value$80.16

Total Shares105

Combined PnL+$4.4

Yes — 10%No — 90%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.4¢	$98	$82.47	-$15.52	54% 1248-1069 (2317)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 72.5¢	$56.6	$39.55	+$2.08	43% 855-1149 (2004)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 75.1¢	$9.35	$9.9	+$0.55	48% 1303-1431 (2734)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 73¢	$5.48	$5.96	+$0.49	53% 2407-2143 (4550)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 76¢	$4.65	$4.87	+$0.21	52% 1000-941 (1941)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 72.6¢	$3.95	$4.06	+$0.1	52% 977-889 (1866)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 72¢	$3.67	$4.05	+$0.38	50% 982-981 (1963)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 76¢	$3.83	$4.01	+$0.18	50% 919-927 (1846)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 76¢	$3.82	$3.99	+$0.18	60% 945-637 (1582)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 70¢	$3.55	$3.78	+$0.23	56% 898-706 (1604)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$98

Value

$82.47

PnL

-$15.52

Record

54%

1248-1069 (2317)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$56.6

Value

$39.55

PnL

+$2.08

Record

43%

855-1149 (2004)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$9.35

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$0.55

Record

48%

1303-1431 (2734)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.48

Value

$5.96

PnL

+$0.49

Record

53%

2407-2143 (4550)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.87

PnL

+$0.21

Record

52%

1000-941 (1941)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.95

Value

$4.06

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

977-889 (1866)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.67

Value

$4.05

PnL

+$0.38

Record

50%

982-981 (1963)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.83

Value

$4.01

PnL

+$0.18

Record

50%

919-927 (1846)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$3.82

Value

$3.99

PnL

+$0.18

Record

60%

945-637 (1582)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.78

PnL

+$0.23

Record

56%

898-706 (1604)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.