Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on November 15?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 96¢ · $401 held · ends Nov 15

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$400.69

Combined PnL

$0.77

Smart Money Entry

92.8¢ → 96.5¢

+4% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$399.18

Total Shares425

Combined PnL+$0.3

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.51

Total Shares13

Combined PnL+$0.47

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 93.6¢	$254.98	$238.23	+$1.97	42% 754-1062 (1816)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 93.4¢	$37.03	$35.03	-$1.99	53% 7331-6407 (13738)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84.4¢	$31.57	$33.07	+$1.5	53% 2078-1852 (3930)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$24.92	$24.55	-$0.37	59% 827-567 (1394)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 88¢	$20.87	$20.95	+$0.08	71% 917-377 (1294)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$15.02	$14.58	-$0.45	58% 820-591 (1411)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$9.36	$9.57	+$0.21	14% 97-580 (677)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 92.8¢	$5.72	$5.59	-$0.12	52% 865-790 (1655)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 92.8¢	$5.61	$5.48	-$0.12	47% 852-950 (1802)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 92.9¢	$5.12	$5	-$0.12	51% 901-849 (1750)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$4.91	$4.81	-$0.09	47% 1197-1366 (2563)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$2.5	$2.29	-$0.21	98% 1504-23 (1527)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.9¢	$1.67	$1.51	+$0.47	65% 4350-2373 (6723)

241532532432

Invested

$254.98

Value

$238.23

PnL

+$1.97

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$37.03

Value

$35.03

PnL

-$1.99

Record

53%

7331-6407 (13738)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$31.57

Value

$33.07

PnL

+$1.5

Record

53%

2078-1852 (3930)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$24.92

Value

$24.55

PnL

-$0.37

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$20.87

Value

$20.95

PnL

+$0.08

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$15.02

Value

$14.58

PnL

-$0.45

Record

58%

820-591 (1411)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$9.36

Value

$9.57

PnL

+$0.21

Record

14%

97-580 (677)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.72

Value

$5.59

PnL

-$0.12

Record

52%

865-790 (1655)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.61

Value

$5.48

PnL

-$0.12

Record

47%

852-950 (1802)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.12

Value

PnL

-$0.12

Record

51%

901-849 (1750)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.91

Value

$4.81

PnL

-$0.09

Record

47%

1197-1366 (2563)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.29

PnL

-$0.21

Record

98%

1504-23 (1527)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.67

Value

$1.51

PnL

+$0.47

Record

65%

4350-2373 (6723)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.