Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on November 15?

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 80¢ · $426 held · ends Nov 15

Yes80¢No20¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$425.75

Combined PnL

$75.89

Smart Money Entry

43.3¢ → 80¢

+85% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes80%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$292.08

Total Shares423

Combined PnL+$94.54

No8 traders

Total Value$133.67

Total Shares254

Combined PnL-$18.65

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Yesavg 45.3¢	$178.34	$196.38	+$68.15	42% 754-1062 (1816)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Noavg 66.1¢	$103.19	$89.16	-$14.02	54% 1232-1038 (2270)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 50.8¢	$66.02	$73.73	+$7.71	71% 917-377 (1294)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 64¢	$25.36	$22.59	-$2.77	53% 7331-6407 (13738)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.34	$13.47	+$15.81	30% 250-582 (832)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$13.61	$10.22	-$1.32	53% 2078-1852 (3930)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$2.62	$5.16	+$2.54	59% 827-567 (1394)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 28.3¢	$4.88	$4.23	-$0.65	49% 877-897 (1774)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$3.02	$3.34	+$0.33	52% 865-790 (1655)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 28.2¢	$3.73	$3.24	-$0.49	51% 818-797 (1615)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$1.58	$1.76	+$0.18	57% 800-608 (1408)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$1.04	$1.24	+$0.2	58% 820-591 (1411)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$1.01	$1.24	+$0.23	51% 901-849 (1750)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$178.34

Value

$196.38

PnL

+$68.15

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Invested

$103.19

Value

$89.16

PnL

-$14.02

Record

54%

1232-1038 (2270)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.02

Value

$73.73

PnL

+$7.71

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$25.36

Value

$22.59

PnL

-$2.77

Record

53%

7331-6407 (13738)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.34

Value

$13.47

PnL

+$15.81

Record

30%

250-582 (832)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$13.61

Value

$10.22

PnL

-$1.32

Record

53%

2078-1852 (3930)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.62

Value

$5.16

PnL

+$2.54

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$4.88

Value

$4.23

PnL

-$0.65

Record

49%

877-897 (1774)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.02

Value

$3.34

PnL

+$0.33

Record

52%

865-790 (1655)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$3.73

Value

$3.24

PnL

-$0.49

Record

51%

818-797 (1615)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$1.58

Value

$1.76

PnL

+$0.18

Record

57%

800-608 (1408)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.24

PnL

+$0.2

Record

58%

820-591 (1411)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$1.01

Value

$1.24

PnL

+$0.23

Record

51%

901-849 (1750)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.