Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on November 14?

14 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 85¢ · $553 held · ends Nov 14

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$553.06

Combined PnL

$79.95

Smart Money Entry

71.5¢ → 84.5¢

+18% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$543.56

Total Shares620

Combined PnL+$92.97

Yes2 traders

Total Value$9.49

Total Shares72

Combined PnL-$13.02

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 64¢	$119.29	$160.41	+$42.95	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 62.7¢	$110.25	$153.08	+$42.83	55% 1088-874 (1962)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 82¢	$37.2	$39.47	+$2.27	65% 4289-2310 (6599)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 85.6¢	$38.22	$37.74	-$0.49	48% 757-814 (1571)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 74.9¢	$33.14	$37.33	+$4.2	72% 823-323 (1146)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 70.2¢	$20	$18.27	+$1.23	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 90.2¢	$18.45	$17.79	-$0.66	58% 699-503 (1202)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 78.2¢	$15.96	$17.75	+$1.79	51% 782-754 (1536)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 91.1¢	$17.1	$16.3	-$0.8	51% 742-710 (1452)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 87¢	$14.25	$14.26	+$0	63% 714-428 (1142)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 90.7¢	$12.31	$11.81	-$0.5	46% 1071-1282 (2353)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 80.5¢	$8.07	$8.72	+$0.65	50% 697-689 (1386)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 36.2¢	$98.97	$6.97	-$13.9	40% 620-939 (1559)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 89.1¢	$6.4	$6.26	-$0.15	49% 731-768 (1499)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 94¢	$4.73	$4.38	-$0.35	58% 679-500 (1179)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.64	$2.52	+$0.88	13% 76-495 (571)

hello.67

Invested

$119.29

Value

$160.41

PnL

+$42.95

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$110.25

Value

$153.08

PnL

+$42.83

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$37.2

Value

$39.47

PnL

+$2.27

Record

65%

4289-2310 (6599)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$38.22

Value

$37.74

PnL

-$0.49

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$33.14

Value

$37.33

PnL

+$4.2

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$18.27

PnL

+$1.23

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$18.45

Value

$17.79

PnL

-$0.66

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$15.96

Value

$17.75

PnL

+$1.79

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$17.1

Value

$16.3

PnL

-$0.8

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$14.25

Value

$14.26

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$12.31

Value

$11.81

PnL

-$0.5

Record

46%

1071-1282 (2353)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$8.07

Value

$8.72

PnL

+$0.65

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.97

Value

$6.97

PnL

-$13.9

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$6.4

Value

$6.26

PnL

-$0.15

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.73

Value

$4.38

PnL

-$0.35

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.64

Value

$2.52

PnL

+$0.88

Record

13%

76-495 (571)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.